Hurricane Isaac Tracking

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openfire

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This should be interesting...
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_model.html
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at201209_5day.gif

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Let me know if the embedded tracking map below is displaying properly for you guys:
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<div style="display:none;position:relative;margin:30px; overflow:hidden;height:1200px; width:700px;">
<iframe width="1000" scrolling="no" height="1700" frameborder="0" src="http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=37.40411&lon=-85.36015&zoom=6&type=hybrid&units=metric&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&pep=0&extremes=0&dir=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=1&hur.gpce=0&hur.img=0&hur.opa=70&hur.opa2=40" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" style="position:absolute; top:-520px;"></iframe>
</div>
<div style="position:relative;margin:30px; overflow:hidden;height:1200px; width:700px;">
<iframe width="1000" scrolling="no" height="1700" frameborder="0" src="http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=37.54362&lon=-84.74492&zoom=6&type=hybrid&units=metric&rad=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=10&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=109&sat.type=IR4&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&pep=0&extremes=0&dir=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=0&hur.obs=0&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=1&hur.gpce=0&hur.img=0&hur.opa=70&hur.opa2=40" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" style="position:absolute; top:-520px;"></iframe>
</div>
 
Im sure that the people of New Orleans could care less what this storm could do for Great Lakes Fish Migration.

But....

All of us on OFF are holding our breath!
Rain-Dance...
 
All depends how what's left of Isaac interacts with the digging trough off the west coast, Euro has it missing the trough and stalling central US, GFS ensemble mean brings it right north of Toronto, CMC Global shows a near miss south with Erie gettin a splash, WV shows a train of moist shortwaves SW of the Aleutians so am thinking next week will be fishy no matter what Isaac does, a direct hit would be awesome though...yeah, the second map shows fine for me...NHC busted out on Euro with Debby, am hopin Euro busts again...
 
He certainly has been an interesting 'cane to watch...zig zagging across the gulf and constantly reforming eyewall as he gulps down dry air...Isaac been choking on dry air since he left the African coast as a wee lil wave...is all that dry air from the death ridge/drought gonna evaporate him before he gets here? Will the ridge build strong enough to keep him down south? Day 5 track error is 300 nautical miles and that's the difference between fish city and another dry sunny day...alot of wishcasting going on here but this is still the best potential I've seen in a long time...everyone is hedging their bets...Environment Canada building rain in their forcast although their model keeps it south of the lakes, Michigan NWS offices give it an either/or forecast, NHC shifter their track westward closer to Euro and UKMET, SPC pooh-poohs the latest GFS model run, but HPC is sticking by it...as with all things, time will tell the tale...
 
Now looks like maybe this is going to be a complete miss...I've been watching that boundary from texas to Virginia since Tues and Isaac hasn't bulged it much. He might just ride it straight east...troughs, and westerlies are weaker and jet stream further north due Arctic Sea ice loss due to global warming and that hasn't been built into the models yet...HPC still paints north shore Lake O with 3/4 of an inch Mon/Tues... these post-trop systems always have a sharp gradient for precip amounts on the North and west sides...like Irene last year, Cobourg got a splash, none west of that and NY and Vermont got historic flooding...from NWS Buffalo office:
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND
THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC. IT STILL
LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BEYOND THIS IS WHERE IT GETS TRICKY. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC
WILL BE CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTHWEST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WESTERN NEW
YORK...THE KEY FEATURE REALLY WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP UP WHAT REMAINS OF
ISAAC...AND WILL LIKELY KEY OUR BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

SO LOOKING AT THIS FRONT...THE LATEST GFS RUN STILL BRINGS THE PCPN
IN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS HINT AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. QPFS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT BALLPARK FIGURES RUN IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OR SLOWS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY.
 
I've been seeing rain for western GTA Monday with drizzles continuing into tuesday... maybe all that creek stomping will pay off when I can get straight to the good spots!


or I can just hit em over the head with a lead pipe... <_<
 
lol jlisk...lotsa fish in rivers already and the rest have to come sometime...doesn't take an awful lot of rain to do it and winds should be favourable either way...the water vapour shows the storm blowin all it's moisture east and alot of dry air/subsidence/ridging between the lakes and the storm... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html
 
The site I was using for the embedded tracking map appears to have stopped tracking the system with computer models, so I've updated the OP with a satellite model instead. :angry:

It's not as good, but it's better than nothing.
 
yeah, weather underground stops tracking when NHC stops making forecasts and advisories...the Hydrometerological Prediction Centre http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml take the lead for forecasts on a post-trop storm at that point...Great lakes GOES imagery http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gl.html
NWS Great Lakes radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php
NWS Buffalo regional modeling http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/mm/mesomodels.html
NWS Buffalo Forecast Discussion http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=discussion#AFDBUF
NWS Detroit Forecast Discussion http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MI&prodtype=discussion#AFDDTX
Environment Canada Global model, lower right panel, 12 hr cumulative precip http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg
 

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